GOP won House by less than 250,000 votes

Fun with math: Repubs won the House by less than 250,000 votes out of 75 million cast (or is it 90 million? -I’m seeing conflicting reports).

This is back of the envelope math with 5 races still undecided. The real number is closer to 220,000 with no more than a 30k margin of error. My round number back of envelope math (below) came up with 213,000.

But it’s safe to say Repubs won this “Tsunami” by less than 250,000 votes across 26-29 districts.

That’s less than .3% of the 2010 electorate.

And it’s significant for a few reasons:

1. Progressive voter turnout matters.  A lot. It needs to be invested in by party and independent groups alike. Several of these races were decided by 5000 votes or less. For all the concern about losing independents, Dems could have held the House by turning out 250k more base voters in key districts.

2. There is no Republican mandate.

3. Michael Moore and others have been using the talking point that Democrats lost by 5 million votes overall, which is true in terms of the entire electorate (and his talking points are good overall). But the House specifically was won by less than 250,000. If someone from Moore’s shop is on this list, please pass this along…

Has anyone else crunched these numbers more precisely?

I’d like a partner to work on this with and make sure we’re using the most updated and precise figures from County BOEs.

Anyone have suggestions on best place to look (other than 538, Wikipedia, CNN, Yahoo election center? –these don’t seem to be reliable updated with precise numbers)

Billy

ps. Here’s my back of the envelope on the 26 closest repub House wins, excluding the 5 undecided races (rounded to 1000s) –from Wikipedia and Yahoo election center which might not be perfect sources. Also, by highlight of the closest races dissappeared in this version. So the 213,000 only represents the 26 closest ones.

 

AL-2 5000
AR-1 14000
AR-5 17000
CO-3 12000
GA-8 11000
IL-8 1000
IL-10 5000
IL-14 14000
MI-7 11000
MN-8 4000
MS-4 10000
MO-4 12000
NV-3 2000
NH-2 4000
NJ-3 6000
NY-1 1000
NY-13 4000
NY-19 12000
NY-24 10000
NC-2 2000
OH-1 14000
OH-6 10000
PA-11 16000
TX-23 7000
VA-5 9000
VA-9 9000
213,000
5000
14000
213,000
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4 responses to “GOP won House by less than 250,000 votes

  1. I think the title should say “by less than” which it says in the text. “With” would imply they only got 250k, not that the margin was 250k as “by” would suggest.

  2. This information helps a lot! Thank you!

  3. Pingback: GOP won the house over Democrats with less than 250,000 votes « Trinity Progressive

  4. Pingback: Less than 1/3 to go « Trinity Progressive

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